It looks like the electric vehicles market has grown big enough to upset big people: Oil companies are reviewing their predictions about the market and realizing – perhaps a little late, that electricity-powered car is a near-inevitable future.
A study conducted by Bloomberg New Energy Finance revealed that OPEC, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, has increased its forecast for the sale of electric vehicles by 2040 – from 46 million to 266 million units.
Other major companies in the segment, such as Exxon Mobil and BP, also decided to revise the numbers that were lifted last year, with the two companies raising their forecasts from 60 million to 100 million vehicles.
In all, the expectation of the oil industry is that the inherent arrival of the electric will reduce the demand for oil by 8 million barrels by 2040, equivalent to the current production of Iran and Iraq combined.
This could lead to stagnation in the demand for oil in the coming decades and a significant impact on the amount of money that is moving through this industry – about $700 billion per year.
“The number of electric vehicles on the streets will have serious implications for carmakers, oil companies, energy service providers and others,” explains Colin McKerracher, director of advanced transport analysis at BNEF. “There is a significant disagreement between how fast the adoption should be and the visions are changing fast.”
While some consulting firms estimate that electric power will account for 90 percent of sales by 2050, BNEF believes that the exchange of fuel for electricity will only happen in 2040, with 530 million new electric vehicles – or one-third of the world’s fleet – circulating around.